Wednesday, February 5, 2014

Financial Times reports the facts

 
The Financial Times is not a supporter of Scottish independence. Yet it fell recently to that publication to carry out a fair, relatively impartial assessment of some of the facts underlying the independence debate (and see also here). You won't read any of this in the Scotsman:
  • "... the leading players on both sides accept that Scotland has all the ingredients to be a viable nation state";
  • "If its geographic share of UK oil and gas output is taken into account [and by the by, why one earth would it not?], Scotland’s GDP per head is bigger than that of France" ;
  • "Oil, whisky and a broad range of manufactured goods mean an independent Scotland would be one of the world’s top 35 exporters."
  • "An independent Scotland could also expect to start with healthier state finances than the rest of the UK. ";
  • "Scotland’s fiscal health will also be challenged by the relatively rapid ageing of its population and the long-term decline of oil output [yet]...greater sway over its own economy could be a real advantage for Scotland. "




  • Government spending in the UK is 45.5% of GDP; in Scotland it's 42.7%. 
  • The gap between revenue and spending, or borrowing, per person per year in the UK is £2,939; in Scotland it's only £1,550, £1,439 less.
  • In 2012, we generated tax revenue of £11,079 per person; the rest of the UK generated only £9,342 per person.
  • On independence, we'd be £7bn better off, each year. "£1,321 a year for every man, woman and child in the country, or £5,812 a year for the classic 2.4-children nuclear family".
And the conclusion:
"Nationalist leaders argue that local control of such “economic levers” as tax reform, immigration policy and welfare will open the way to a fairer and wealthier society. September’s referendum will hinge in large part on whether Scotland’s voters agree."  
The partial (pro-independence) Wings over Scotland site carries a detailed analysis of the FT's findings. That's "partial" in the sense that it draws out the implications of the dry facts - there's a standing, never yet claimed offer of an easy £10 to anyone who spots a factual error on the site.

We can all have our own opinions. We can't have our own facts. 

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