The Squillion Pound Black Hole

Black holes are really interesting, aren't they? “But I wonder”, I thought, “just how big black holes actually are? How 'big' is something so unimaginably dense that it sucks even light into itself? Is that really, really big or really, really small?” And then I thought “Where on earth am I going to find THAT out? What entity will possess the combination of wisdom, gravitas and expertise in matters astrophysical that I need?”

I thought, of course, of the two obvious answers but NASA was less than helpful, frankly. Their answer to the question “How big are black holes?” is: “Black holes can be big or small.” “OK”, I thought, “Better Together it is then”. 

Now. Better Together do talk about black holes a lot. A lot. But here I encountered a different problem to the one I'd had with NASA. If anything, Better Together seemed to know even less about black holes than NASA do. They didn't say that various black holes are of various sizes. They said the same black hole is of various sizes. At least their arch-rivals NASA had conceded that any particular black hole might be big or small. They didn't say big and small. “Where's Stephen Hawking when you need him?” I thought, conveniently forgetting the less than well-thumbed copy of "A Brief History of Time" languishing beside the lavatory. But I decided to grit my teeth, plough on and do the maths.

So. Better Together have concentrated their analytical powers on the “black hole” they've identified in the economic case for Scottish independence and their preferred unit of measurement is the pound sterling. Interestingly, some time back they spent absolutely ages and ages measuring this black hole and told us months in advance that they'd be announcing the final, definitive result of their exhaustive, comprehensive research into how big it is. They did that and their final, definitive, categorical, final answer was “£1 a year each worse off” big. However, they didn't seem that happy with their work (I think they later claimed they'd pressed “plus” rather than “times”) and you never hear them say that any more. So, anyway, just how big is this black hole, then? Well, it appears it's:

• £5.3m (as calculated on recent population figures)  ("Scottish independence: Cost to Scots of UK split is £1 a year - Danny Alexander")
• £2.6bn ("SNP told tax plan will lead to £2.6bn black hole")
• £3bn to £10bn (and that's some margin of error isn't it?) ("Scottish independence: ‘Fiscal black hole’ warning")
• £3.3bn ("Independence Black Hole Getting Deeper")
• £4bn ("Independence row over economic black hole claim")
• £4.5bn ("‘We’re all doomed!’: Scotland is staring into a £4.5 billion black hole")
• £5.4bn ("This Week in Scotland")
• £8bn ("North Sea oil slump leaves SNP an £8bn 'black hole'")
• £8.3bn ("Blow for separation plans as North Sea oil revenues fall")
• £9bn ("Alistair Darling: Scottish Government's blueprint for independence contains £9billion black hole")
• £15bn to £24bn (ditto re margin for error) ("OBR Oil Shock for Salmond & Swinney")
• £23.9bn ("Independent Scotland would have oil fund within a decade, says Salmond")
• £28bn ("SNP dossier reveals pensions could be cut to plug £28bn oil black hole in independent Scotland")

and

• £32bn ("Scottish independence: SNP’s ‘£32bn black hole’")

All at the same time.

It's all very odd. You'd almost think that Better Together weren't actually experts in measuring black holes at all. Otherwise, why would they keep giving us a different answer for the size of this one? And why would the answer keep going up? It's almost as if they wanted us to think there was something really, really big and really, really scary out there but just couldn't quite work out how big it had to be for us to be as scared as we have to be. It's as if the law of diminishing returns has hit home with a vengeance and “Project Fear” has mutated into “Project Oh FFS We'll Have to Make It Even Scarier But They're Surely Going to Stop Believing Us At Some Point Aren't They?” as each dire warning fails to have the effect intended. 

My elder daugher once asked me: “Daddy? Is it thousand, million, billion, squillion then trillion? Or is squillion the biggest?” Actually, a perfectly fair question. She was only eight, had heard the word “squillion” and didn't want to mis-use it. But we're entitled to expect more than this from adults, aren't we? As things rest, I am waiting for the first reference to identification of the X squillion pound black hole. Black hole inflation* will in fact mean that even the squillion won't be enough come next September. Analysis of current trends, which I commissioned some mathematicians to undertake for this blog, suggests that by then the unit of measurement will be the Tetrapak-Googlemultiplex-NanoNano-MegaPetaflop-Bagazillion. 

Almost every advanced country in the world currently runs a budget deficit. Since 2007-08, Scotland has run an average net fiscal deficit of £8.3 billion (5.9% of GDP). During the same period, the UK ran an average annual deficit of £111 billion, equivalent to 7.6% of GDP. Over the last 30 years, Scotland has had a surplus relative to the rest of the UK of around £30 billion and its debt, at 56% of its national wealth, is less than the UK's, which equals 63% of its.

We'll do fine. See: Scotland's Economy: the Case for Independence (and download the pdf here).

*or deflation. Whatever. My brain hurts.