Sunday, May 12, 2013

The big picture

Oil & Gas UK, the independent offshore industry body, estimate that there are more than 24 billion barrels of oil and gas equivalent to be recovered from the North Sea and that of that 90% (85% of gas) lie within Scottish waters. The Scottish/English maritime border would be determined by the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea and no-one seriously disputes that this would mean an independent Scotland inheriting the vast bulk of this resource (see for example, Vince Cable recently).

So, lets say 22 billion barrels. That puts us in the top-20 oil producing countries. So how do we compare with  some of the others?

Iraq (pop. 33 million) 143 
Kuwait (pop. 4 million) 102 
Russia (pop. 143 million) 74 
Libya  (pop. 7 million) 47 
United States (pop. 316 million) 27 
China (pop. 1,325 million) 20 
Brazil (pop. 194 million) 13

So, we've got nothing like Kuwait but for a country of 5.5m to have reserves that are proportionately (by population) comparable to those held by Iraq, approaching a third of Russian and half of Libyan reserves, about the same as the US and actually more than Brazil, and China makes the point: we have a LOT of oil.

This debate is about what's best for our children, and theirs, and what we can do to leave them something better than we have now. A fairer society and a more prosperous country. International dialling codes and the price of parcel delivery are, to be charitable, details to sort out later. Let's not lose sight of the big picture.

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